AGP Executive Report

Climate Outlook: Southern Africa, including southern Zambia, is bracing for a drier-than-normal rainy season as El Niño strengthens, with higher chances of below-normal rainfall from October 2026 to March 2027 and above-normal temperatures—raising stakes for crops, water and livestock. Water & Food Security: Zimbabwe’s forecast mirrors the region’s risk, warning of hotter, drier conditions that could hit planting and water availability, even after a temporary harvest cushion. Wildlife & Conservation Tourism: A “Quiet Score” index puts Zambia among the world’s most tranquil destinations, highlighting protected land and low tourist density—useful for eco-tourism planning. Youth & Farming Livelihoods: Caritas Zambia backs young farmers through cooperatives, aiming to shift farming from survival to sustainable, higher-income community businesses. Governance & Environment Link: Zambia’s election tensions continue as opposition leader Brian Mundubile faces treason charges, while rights groups warn political space is narrowing—an indirect risk to stable planning for environmental and public health priorities.

Climate Outlook for Southern Africa: SARCOF-33 warns a stronger El Niño could bring below-normal rainfall across much of southern Zambia and neighbouring countries from Oct 2026–Mar 2027, alongside above-normal temperatures, raising alarms for water, farming and livestock planning. Water & Food Security: The same outlook flags likely water shortages and pressure on agriculture, urging communities to seek guidance from the Zambia Meteorological Department and prepare early. Youth Farming for Livelihoods: Caritas Zambia says it is supporting young people to form farming cooperatives, aiming to turn farming from survival into higher-income, sustainable livelihoods. Critical Minerals Debate: A new report argues the global rush for critical minerals is already harming people and the planet, and that mining expansion is not automatically tied to the “green energy” transition. Zambia’s Election Integrity Watch: Transparency International Zambia puts 32 constituencies under scrutiny after monitors reported procedural irregularities, calling for transparent review—an issue that can shape environmental governance and public trust.

Climate & Water Security: Southern Africa, including Southern Zambia, is likely to see drier-than-normal rains in the 2026/27 season as El Niño strengthens, with above-normal temperatures also expected—while northern Zambia may get more normal to above-normal rainfall, raising planning pressure for farms and water supplies. Youth & Sustainable Livelihoods: Caritas Zambia says it is supporting young people through farming cooperatives, helping them pool labour, negotiate better prices, and turn harvests into higher-income businesses. Critical Minerals & Green Claims: A new report warns that the rush for critical minerals is already harming people and the planet, arguing that extraction is often not actually tied to the clean-energy transition. Copper, Power & Risk: Zambia’s copper boom is being squeezed by a power crunch linked to drought and rising mining demand, underlining how climate stress can hit jobs and investment. Regional Policy & Jobs: Zambia is among countries approved to join the Digital Cooperation Organization, a move that could expand digital skills and cross-border cooperation. Governance & Democracy: Post-election tensions continue to draw international concern, with warnings about institutional strength and due process—an issue that can also affect environmental regulation and enforcement.

Climate & Water Security: Southern Zambia is bracing for a drier-than-normal rainy season. The SARCOF-33 outlook says October 2026 to March 2027 brings higher chances of below-normal rainfall for Southern Zambia, while northern Zambia is more likely to see normal to above-normal rains. It also warns of above-normal temperatures across much of the region, linked to a strengthening El Niño and a developing Indian Ocean Dipole, urging the public to follow guidance from the Zambia Meteorological Department. Youth & Sustainable Livelihoods: Caritas Zambia says it is supporting young people to build sustainable, higher-income livelihoods through farming cooperatives—helping youth negotiate better prices and turn harvests into businesses. Regional Climate Risk: A separate SADC-focused summary echoes the same concern: water shortages and pressure on agriculture are possible if rainfall stays below normal, especially in central and southern areas including Zambia. Transport Safety on Shared Waters: While not Zambia-based, a Lake Kariba ferry disaster involving the Zambia-Zimbabwe border is driving renewed scrutiny of safety and overloading after police arrested a district official over culpable homicide.

Climate Outlook: Southern Africa is bracing for a dry, hot rainy season as El Niño is expected to bring below-normal rainfall in central and southern areas, including Zambia, with hotter conditions likely to add pressure on water and agriculture. Water & Diplomacy: A Global Ambassadors’ Forum for Water and Economic Diplomacy at World Water Week highlighted a major water-investment shortfall and pushed water cooperation as a route to finance and implementation. Mining & Environment Risks: A new report warns that the rush for “transition minerals” is linked to serious harm to people and planet, raising questions about how development banks assess environmental and human-rights risks. Wildlife & Conservation Culture: Zambia is featured in a “quietest nations” ranking, with Zambia scoring high for protected land and low tourist pressure—useful context for conservation-minded tourism. Youth & Energy Participation: A Chinese firm donated 100 fuel tankers to Zambia to boost youth involvement in the petroleum sector, aiming for jobs and sustainable income. Governance & Accountability: Zambia’s election dispute continues as opposition figures face police action and legal moves, with calls for a peaceful environment to protect citizens’ rights.

Climate Outlook: Southern Africa braces for a dry, hot rainy season as SARCOF-33 warns El Niño could bring below-normal rainfall across much of SADC (including Zambia) from Oct 2026–Mar 2027, with above-average rain more likely in northern pockets. Food Security: Zambia’s record maize harvest may not fully protect households, as El Niño-linked drought risks could still push some districts toward worse IPC outcomes through impacts on water, livestock, power generation and prices. Water & Safety: Zimbabwe arrests a district official over the Lake Kariba ferry disaster that killed at least 97 people, spotlighting overloaded vessels, bad weather and safety failures on the Zambia–Zimbabwe lake route. Mining & Power: Zambia’s copper push faces a looming electricity crunch, with hydropower vulnerability to drought and rising mine demand threatening output targets. Critical Minerals Debate: A new report argues the rush for “transition minerals” is often tied to serious environmental and human-rights harm, challenging claims it’s mainly for green energy. Wildlife & Conservation: Researchers document “fashion-like” grass-copying behavior among chimps at a Zambia sanctuary, adding to growing evidence of culture in wildlife.

Youth & Entrepreneurship: Japan-funded “Empower Africa” is opening applications for 18–35s across 11 Anglophone countries, including Zambia, with training in sustainable development, AI, and investment readiness. Critical Minerals & the Green Claim: A new report warns the rush for critical minerals is driving “devastating” land and water damage, arguing it’s not as tightly linked to green energy as governments claim. Zambia’s Power Crunch for Copper: Zambia’s copper expansion push faces a growing electricity gap, with hydropower vulnerability and drought risks threatening mine growth. Food Security Under El Niño: Zambia’s record maize harvest is being weighed against El Niño risks that could still push drought-prone areas toward worse conditions, affecting water, livestock, and prices. Water & Diplomacy: GWPO and partners launched a Global Ambassadors’ Forum linking water investment with economic diplomacy, highlighting a major funding shortfall for water and sanitation. Transport Safety (Lake Kariba): Zimbabwe police arrested a district official over the Lake Kariba ferry disaster that killed at least 97, underscoring safety and overloading concerns across the Zambia–Zimbabwe border. Wildlife & Conservation Culture: A Zambia chimp sanctuary study highlights “fashion-like” copying of grass-wearing behavior, showing how wildlife social learning spreads.

Lake Kariba tragedy: Zimbabwe police arrested a district coordinator over a ferry capsize on Lake Kariba that killed at least 97 people on Aug 11, with the overloaded vessel reportedly carrying far more than its 90-passenger limit in bad weather. Zambia power squeeze: A report warns Zambia’s copper push is colliding with a power crunch, as hydropower dependence and drought-linked drops in dam output strain the grid and threaten faster mine expansion. El Niño food-security nerves: Zambia’s record maize harvest may not stop rising risk, with an upcoming IPC assessment expected to flag drought impacts in vulnerable areas as El Niño conditions build. Transition minerals scrutiny: A new report says development-bank-backed transition minerals projects often carry serious environmental and human-rights risks, with many African projects showing potential harm to communities. Youth in petroleum: A Chinese firm donated 100 fuel tankers to Zambia’s youth empowerment programme to boost young participation in the petroleum sector, targeting about 12,000 beneficiaries. Wildlife & conservation: A separate story highlights how communities are being pushed to cooperate across borders to tackle wildlife and timber trafficking linked to environmental crime.

IMF Debt Watch: Egypt tops Africa’s IMF credit outstanding list for Aug 1–20, 2026 (SDR 7.86bn), followed by Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Kenya—highlighting that “IMF debt” is different from total public debt and matters for how easily countries can access financing. Fertiliser Shock and Farming Resilience: Fertiliser prices surged after the Strait of Hormuz closure, exposing how subsidy-heavy support can protect farmers’ cash flow without fixing soil degradation and nutrient loss—pushing the debate toward smarter investment in farm systems. Zambia Courts Disrupted: Zambia’s High Court and other courts were closed and barricaded as “crime scenes” on the presidential petition deadline day, raising fresh concerns about access to justice and due process. El Niño Extreme Weather Alert: Eastern and Southern Africa is bracing for a potentially record-strong El Niño, with Kenya warning of heavy rains, flash floods, mudslides and large numbers at risk—urging early preparation. Wildlife and Trade Corridor Push: Congo’s Lobito Corridor deal is set to strengthen cross-border trade while also expanding cooperation to tackle wildlife and natural resource crimes. Urban Heat and Transport Pressure: Heatwaves are stressing public transport systems, with calls for upgrades to protect commuters and drivers as extreme temperatures become more common.

Wildlife & Trade Security: The DRC says it has formally signed on to the Lobito Corridor, linking the project to a new push against cross-border environmental crimes like wildlife and timber trafficking. Election & Justice Access: Zambia’s courts were shut and barricaded as “crime scenes” on the final day to file a presidential petition, raising fresh alarms about access to justice and due process. El Niño Readiness: Kenya is stepping up preparations for extreme weather tied to El Niño, warning of heavy rains, flash floods and landslides that could affect millions. Urban Drought in Practice: A new IIED discussion spotlights how drought is experienced in cities, including in Zambia, and how urban coping shapes wider adaptation thinking. Copper Output Reality Check: Zambia’s copper production is improving year-on-year, but a reported widening gap versus the 3-million-tonne-by-2031 target path keeps pressure on energy, investment and delivery. Zambia Bonds Confidence: Zambia’s first post-election local currency bond auction drew strong demand, with yields falling as investors signaled growing confidence in stability.

El Niño warning for Africa: Global models point to a historic 2026–2027 El Niño, with health, food and energy risks pushing countries to activate early-warning and contingency plans. Zambia election fallout and accountability: A 60-page presidential petition challenges the 13 August result, but legal analysis says the petition’s own parallel tabulation still shows Hichilema winning above the 50% threshold; meanwhile, questions deepen after former MP Binwell Mpundu failed to appear in court, with his whereabouts still unclear. Zambia’s copper target under pressure: New reporting highlights a widening production shortfall against the 2031 “three million tonnes” ambition, raising concerns about whether output, investment and energy plans are keeping pace. Zambia bond confidence signal: Zambia’s first local-currency bond auction after the election was oversubscribed by about 37%, with yields falling as investors bet on stability and fiscal follow-through. Water and health access in Kabwe: Bayer and the Ministry of Health handed over the Munzele Health Centre in Munga Ward, cutting a 20km barrier to basic care and addressing local environmental health burdens. Fisheries stress in the Zambezi system: A regional council report flags depletion of Zambezi bream and other species, urging restocking and stronger action against overfishing. Urban drought lens: A new IIED podcast episode spotlights how drought affects city residents and how urban communities adapt.

Uranium & permitting: Atomic Eagle says it has secured a new exploitation permit and a fresh mining convention for the Madaouela uranium project in Niger, restoring a 60% interest and operational control as it pushes for development-ready progress after earlier permit trouble. Health access in Kabwe: Bayer and Zambia’s Ministry of Health handed over the Munzele Health Centre in Munga Ward, Kabwe, funded with a EUR 125,000 investment to cut a 20km barrier to basic care. Fisheries pressure on the Zambezi: The Zambezi Regional Council reports Zambezi bream and other fish are declining, warning that continued overfishing could leave rivers with little fish within five years and urging restocking. Education support in Namwala: Education Above All (EAA) Foundation says its EVE project in Namwala District exceeded targets, reaching 10,193 vulnerable learners and re-enrolling 1,780 out-of-school children. Water & climate risk watch: Global reporting highlights preparations for likely extreme El Niño impacts, with UN-backed support aimed at protecting vulnerable countries. Democracy & stability: Analysis notes Hichilema’s second-term win, but flags late electoral reforms and weak checks as Zambia’s democratic test continues. Road safety & health: A study links obstructive sleep apnea and sleepiness to risky driving behaviours among taxi drivers, raising concerns for fatigue-related crashes.

Health Access: Bayer and Zambia’s Ministry of Health have handed over the Munzele Health Centre in Kabwe’s Munga Ward, cutting a long 20km travel barrier to basic care for about 10,000+ residents. Fisheries & Biodiversity: A Zambezi river assessment warns Zambezi bream and other fish are declining fast, urging restocking and tighter controls on overfishing. Climate Risk: Global agencies are bracing for a potentially record El Niño in 2026–27, with major knock-on effects for weather, health, food and ecosystems. Water & Energy (Regional): Tanzania commissioned the 2,115MW Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project, boosting generation capacity and raising questions from conservation groups about downstream wildlife impacts. Education & Social Resilience: Education Above All (EAA) says its EVE project in Namwala District reached 10,193 vulnerable learners, re-enrolling 1,780 out-of-school children and setting up SAFE Clubs. Governance & Environment Link: Zambia’s election aftermath continues to raise concerns about stability and democratic checks—an issue that can shape how quickly environmental and public services get delivered.

El Niño Watch: The world is bracing for a potentially record-breaking El Niño in 2026-27, with UN-backed plans and health, food and ecosystem risks highlighted for vulnerable countries. Education & Child Protection: Education Above All (EAA) Foundation says its EVE project in Namwala District reached 10,193 vulnerable learners, re-enrolled 1,780 out-of-school children, and set up 37 SAFE Clubs to support wellbeing. Zambia Election Tensions: Opposition leader Brian Mundubile accuses the state of disrupting his Constitutional Court petition as the seven-day filing window closes, while former Justice Minister Wynter Kabimba warns Zambia could have faced civil war had the Mundubile-Zulu ticket won. Uranium & Mining Footprint: Atomic Eagle extends its uranium portfolio with a new mining convention for the Madaouela project in Niger, adding scale alongside its Zambia assets—raising the stakes for how mining expansion is managed. Regional Power & Wildlife Concerns: Tanzania commissioned the 2,115MW Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project, but conservation groups have warned about impacts on wildlife and habitats downstream of the Selous Game Reserve. Waterways & Roads: Zambezi communities are being consulted on rehabilitation of the Kongola-Mulangu road, a key corridor for cross-border truck traffic.

Hydropower & wildlife concerns: Tanzania commissioned the 2,115MW Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project on the Rufiji River, boosting generation capacity to 4,646MW and creating a surplus officials say could enable power exports to countries including Zambia—though conservation groups warn the dam’s location near the Selous Game Reserve could harm downstream habitats and wildlife. Zambia election fallout: Opposition leader Brian Mundubile says the government is trying to derail his Constitutional Court petition ahead of the 24 August deadline, while civil society figures also signal a shift away from court action after hurdles in building a case. Environment-linked governance & stability: Citi upgraded Zambia’s international bond outlook to “overweight,” citing post-election stability, but flagged risks including possible unrest and El Niño impacts on the economy. Climate & nature research: New mapping of Angola’s Highlands Water Tower peatlands suggests far more peatland than thought, highlighting their role as a long-term carbon sink and warning that slash-and-burn farming and peat misuse could release CO2. Regional infrastructure: Zimbabwe and South Africa urged faster delivery of the North–South Rail Corridor as an “economic security” lifeline for trade and food security—an angle that matters for Zambia’s own corridor planning.

Hydropower & wildlife: Tanzania commissioned the 2,115MW Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project, promising surplus power for exports to neighbours including Zambia—while conservation groups warn the Rufiji dam could harm habitats in the Selous Game Reserve. Child protection walk: Zambian campaigner Mate Subulwa arrived in Bulawayo to continue his Pan‑African walk against child abuse, urging prevention and early reporting across Southern Africa. Zambia power & farming: Reports say stable winter electricity supply is supporting winter wheat production and boosting prospects for a bumper 2026 harvest. Copper trade rules: The DRC banned exports of copper and cobalt concentrates, tightening regional supply chains that include Zambia and raising uncertainty for downstream processing. Local roads & water impacts: Communities in Zambezi were consulted on rehabilitating the Kongola–Mulangu road, with calls for wider works and careful planning for boreholes and construction. Investor confidence: Citi upgraded Zambia’s international bonds to “overweight” after Hichilema’s re-election, while flagging risks including unrest and possible El Niño impacts. Politics with environmental stakes: Zambia’s post-election tension continues, including police summoning opposition leader Brian Mundubile—an issue that can affect stability for development and environmental governance.